12 Jul

Interest rates have been kept low to stave off recession

General

Posted by: Drummond Team

  • 11 Jul 2011
  • The Gazette
  • JOHN ARCHER on investing

 

“Interest rates across the world were lowered even further to keep the economies afloat.”

For many, it is a mystery as to why interest rates are so low and what will possibly cause them to rise one day. This question has challenged investors for decades.

A country’s central bank generally sets interest rate policy.

In Canada, it is set by the Bank of Canada Governing Council which, at the present time, is chaired by governor Mark Carney, while in the U.S. it is set by the Federal Open Market Committee, which is chaired by Ben Bernanke.

The Bank of Canada’s role is to keep inflation within their desired range. One of their main tools for controlling inflation is to increase or decrease the cost of money into the economy through the lowering or raising of interest rates.

Since the early 1980s, the trend has been the lowering of interest rates to keep the economy from tipping into a recession.

Low rates in turn helped contribute to a so-called “housing bubble” in the U.S, which imploded into a full-blown global financial crisis in 2008.

To avert a complete meltdown of the entire financial system and to help minimize the impact of the resulting recession, interest rates throughout the world were lowered even further to keep the economies afloat.

Some may recall the interest rates of the early 1980s when an investment in a 10year Government of Canada bond would yield as much as 16 per cent.

However, what they fail to remember is that inflation (the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, which is a measure of the cost of a basket of typical consumer goods) was running near 12 per cent.

This meant that the real rate of return (the difference between the interest rate and the rate of inflation) produced a four-per-cent return.

Fast forward to early 2000 and the 10-year government bonds were at 6.6 per cent with CPI at 2.7 per cent (for a real return at 3.9 per cent) while currently these bonds yield 3.07 per cent and CPI is clicking in at 3.7 per cent creating a real rate of return of negative 0.63 per cent. And this is before you factor in taxes.

What happened to bring rates so low?

“With short-term rates now near zero, rates must rise as bond investors are no
longer being fairly compensated.”

PORTFOLIO MANAGER LORNE STEINBERG

According to Lorne Steinberg, portfolio manager of the Steinberg High Yield fund in Montreal, “central bankers in the early 1980s had let inflation get out of control. Inflation was running in the double digits and as a result the price of gold had also risen to $800 which was its all-time high at that time.

“By raising interest rates, a concerted effort was made to lower inflation and get it back under control.”

As inflation declined, central bankers were able to continue lowering interest rates, a trend that has lasted over 30 years as indicative of the falling 10-year bond yields over this period.

According to Steinberg “it is clear the 30-year “bull market” in bonds is coming to an end.

“With short-term rates now near zero, rates must rise,” he continues, “as bond investors are no longer being fairly compensated for the risk of inflation.”

A bull market in bonds means that interest rates are falling and that the corresponding market value of the longer maturity bond is rising.

As interest rates begin to rise, the market prices for these existing bonds will fall. However, higher bond yields translate into an opportunity for new investors with cash to invest as they will receive higher yields on their fixed income investments such as term deposits and annuities.

There are some signs of higher rates are creeping into the landscape when recently we saw the U.S. 10 year benchmark treasury bond yield jump 10 per cent from 2.94 per cent to 3.23 per cent.

This may be more indicative of overall market volatility than an actual trend higher. Yet some banks have already increased their five year mortgage rates.

This does not mean we will be heading back to the heady rates of the 1980s anytime soon. In fact, some economists’ outlook for the next 12 months is for a slight moderation in inflation from current levels back toward the two-per-cent range, and a rise in the 10-year bond rates to somewhere around four per cent.

This would bring real interest rates back into positive territory, at least before taxes. That alone would be a move in the right direction for many fixed income investors.

5 Jul

The Messy World of Real Data by Avery Shenfeld

General

Posted by: Drummond Team

NORTH AMERICAN & INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
The Messy World of Real Data
by Avery Shenfeld

June 30, 2011

Canada’s inflation rate took a bounce higher in May, and barring some downside surprises, the “core” rate tracked as a trend variable by the Bank of Canada will run above 2% by the third quarter. In contrast, growth has taken a swan dive, with no gain in GDP for April, and evidence of softness in May pointing to not much better than 1% growth for the second quarter.

Both of these results could be deemed to be a “surprise” relative to forecasts a few months ago, but in the messy world of real data, are not actually that surprising at all. Take GDP, for example. The last Canadian expansion showed individual quarters that were negative, or barely positive, amidst reasonably healthy growth over the period as a whole (Chart). CPI had some similar waves, even in the year-on-year core rate, that were not always tied to changes in the degree of slack in the Canadian economy.

Growth forecasts, including most notably the projection that the Bank of Canada publishes in its monetary policy report, always look smoother than these messy actual data, particularly beyond a quarter or two. Random shocks that can hit or boost growth in a particular quarter-an earthquake here, a new temporary stimulus program there -can’t be known in advance. Moreover, the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy report
(MPR) forecast for core CPI, as opposed to the confidential forecast produced by its model, appears to
be deliberately “smoothed.” The model works with quarterly data, and many economists have a monthly
pattern forecast for the seasonally adjusted CPI. A fairly smooth path for quarterly or monthly seasonally
adjusted prices will generate a bouncy path for the year-on-year CPI rate as large and small results from 12 months ago drop out of the calculation. But the MPR always shows a smooth transition from the current core CPI towards 2% at the end of the forecast horizon, avoiding the messiness of having to explain why, along the way, core inflation might actually run above its target for a while when low numbers are dropping out form a year earlier.

Cognizant of its own smoothing tendencies, the Bank of Canada won’t make as much as markets do of either the dip in GDP growth in Q2, or the run in both headline and core CPI above its 2% target. Where it has its eye is on how the economy will look a year or so out, the timeframe over which interest rate decisions can help steer the results. There will be no rush to a panicky interest rate hike in July based solely on the blip in CPI. But neither will the Bank shy away from raising rates this fall if, as we expect, it gets confirmation by October that the GDP dip was nothing other than the typical swings of fortune for an economy with a reasonably healthy trend pace.